The best chart for predictability

In this agile world, we often get lost in a sea of Story Points and velocity.

We try to predict the unpredictable using estimations as 100% truths. What if there is another way?

My suggestion, data. Strange, right? But it is as simple as looking back. Not at story points, but at the time and quantity of work delivered in the amount of time.

I love this chart. It clearly gives clear visibility of the number of items delivered in that “bucket” of time. With it, you can tell someone.

By looking at our previous work, I can tell you with a confidence of XX% that we will need YY to deliver it.

Is this a good predictability tool?

In my opinion, better than most than everything I’ve seen so far.

What do you think?

Cheers,

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